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| PoK under TTP and India’s Future Security Challenges By Fatima Baloch | | 
By Fatima Baloch
Whether it is India in the east, Taliban-led Afghanistan in the west, a religious jihadist ideological insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that is gradually engulfing Pakistan, or the secular Baloch national armed struggle seeking an independent Republic of Balochistan, Pakistan has opened multiple strategic fronts and is now facing grave security and existential threats. For India in particular, the situation carries serious implications. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a jihadist ideological militant organization, has expanded its operational focus into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and aims to defeat the Pakistan Army and eventually conquer Pakistan, similar to how the Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) seized control of Kabul on 15 August 2021. This expansion has resulted in increased attacks against Pakistani security forces in Pakistan-occupied Indian territory, including reports of fatalities among high-ranking officers.
On 24 December 2025, the TTP announced its organizational structure across Pakistan, which also extends into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including Gilgit-Baltistan, where Pakistani armed forces are expected to face ambushes and military bases may be targeted in the near future. Within this structure, the TTP declared the establishment of an Air Force unit under the supervision of Salim Haqqani, which will reportedly employ sophisticated portable drones to target Pakistan’s key military bases, installations, and military-run industries. The TTP has already formed a shadow government and military leadership across Pakistan, with governors and commanders actively directing its insurgency.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the group has been using small drones in military operations targeting checkpoints, police units, and other law enforcement agencies. For the first time, it has also declared Kashmir as a new “Vilayat,” dividing Gilgit into two subdivisions: Vilayat Diamer and Vilayat Darel. The presence of such extremist groups in PoK—where the population largely consists of Shia communities and moderate Muslims, and which is legally part of the Indian Union—poses a serious security threat to India, as the TTP adheres to an anti-India jihadist ideology. The TTP has previously conducted operations in PoK, such as the attack on 28 August 2025 against a Gilgit-Baltistan Scouts checkpoint in Hudur, Chilas, Diamer, which killed two soldiers and injured another. According to its new organizational structure, the TTP intends to further strengthen its military presence in PoK.
In the context of the current Afghanistan–Pakistan war, which reportedly began on 27 February 2026 under the code name Operation Ghazab-e-Ilhaq, Pakistan’s key objective appears to be the internationalization of its internal conflicts and coercing the Afghan Taliban into fighting Pakistan’s war against ideologically aligned groups such as the TTP and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). If the Afghan Taliban were to take up arms against the TTP—who fought alongside them against the United States and NATO for two decades—it would likely trigger internal dissent and public anger within the Afghan population. Pakistan could attempt to exploit such tensions to provoke a civil war in Afghanistan similar to that of 1992 and potentially replace the current Taliban leadership.
Pakistan’s ongoing military campaign is also likely to face the same challenges as its earlier operations on 14–15 October 2025. The Afghan Taliban leadership appears reluctant to fight its ideological counterparts within the TTP due to ideological and religious considerations. Doing so risks internal divisions, public backlash, and the possibility of civil war—an outcome Pakistan might attempt to manipulate. Additionally, in the context of Pakistan’s past political interference in Afghan politics, including support for anti-government factions and its role during the 1992 Afghan civil war, the current Taliban-led government in Afghanistan understands that, for durable peace and economic development and to protect Afghanistan from future superpower military intervention, it may be necessary to support the TTP, defeat the Pakistan Army, and ultimately install an Afghan Taliban-style Sharia system in Pakistan’s Pashtun regions while supporting the BLA in reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Pashtun lands. Such developments, according to this perspective, could ensure Afghanistan’s long-term national security. Therefore, Taliban-led Afghanistan appears prepared for a prolonged guerrilla insurgency against Pakistan along the Durand Line and has reportedly named its retaliatory campaign Rad-ul-Zulam, accusing Pakistan of attacking innocent Afghan civilians.
Meanwhile, despite continued and unabated attacks by the TTP and the BLA, the insurgencies are expanding. The TTP is reportedly advancing toward Peshawar after launching its new operations Khyber and Daf-e-Afghanistan, and it may eventually attempt to move toward Islamabad and expand control across Pakistan, including PoK. Such a scenario would pose serious security concerns for India. At the same time, the BLA and its associated groups continue to challenge Pakistan’s control in Balochistan. It is evident that Pakistan’s military, despite backing from China, Turkey, and several Arab countries, is embroiled in brutal insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is struggling to maintain control in a multi-front conflict, raising concerns about long-term stability.
This internal conflict and the ongoing Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions will inevitably affect India’s national security. It should be noted that during preparations for Operation Sindhoor 1.0, in response to the Pahalgam attack on 22 April 2025, fighters of the Baloch Liberation Army and associated groups intensified their insurgency, ambushing Pakistani forces across Balochistan in what they described as solidarity with India. Following the Indo-Pakistan war of May 2025, Pakistan labeled the Baloch struggle as “Fitnatul-Hindustan,” accusing India of orchestrating it. However, the Baloch resistance predates these accusations and has existed independently since Pakistan’s occupation of Balochistan in March 1948.History demonstrates that when India supports liberation movements, new nations can emerge. In 1971, India assisted Bangladesh in achieving independence despite global opposition. Today, India may need to adopt a more assertive approach toward the Baloch cause—not only for moral reasons but also to safeguard its strategic interests.
In Pakistan-controlled Balochistan, a secular nationalist armed struggle has endured despite repeated Pakistani military campaigns. In contrast, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the TTP controls significant territories, openly fighting the Pakistan Army and attempting to impose Taliban-style Sharia law. If Pakistan’s military collapses in the face of the TTP insurgency, India could face the risk of extremist expansion into PoK and the possibility of being drawn into a prolonged guerrilla conflict with serious consequences for its national security.
Pakistan’s military, backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, and China, continues to suppress Baloch nationalism while weaponizing religion, restricting cultural rights, empowering feudal elites, and exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources largely for the benefit of Punjab. Pakistan has also involved China and several allied states in supporting its presence in Balochistan, fueling anti-China sentiment among segments of the Baloch population.
Despite these pressures, the Baloch movement has evolved into a youth-led secular urban struggle, with women playing a prominent role. Leadership figures such as Dr. Mahrang Baloch, Bashir Zaib Baloch, and Dr. Allah Nazar have become central voices within the movement. The Baloch Liberation Army now operates as a structured force with specialized units such as the Majeed Brigade, the Fateh Squad, and an intelligence wing known as Zirab. For many among the younger generation, independence is no longer viewed merely as an aspiration but as an inevitable national goal.
Pakistan today faces simultaneous political, economic, and security crises, with the rise of the BLA, BLF, and TTP highlighting deepening internal instability. India cannot remain a passive observer while the people of PoK suffer. Critical questions remain: whether PoK’s Sufi and Shia communities would accept the TTP’s radical interpretation of Sharia law; whether the TTP could ever abandon its hostility toward India; whether India is prepared to address these evolving threats with strategic clarity; and whether the secular Baloch nation should continue to endure repression while receiving only symbolic international support. A nuclear-armed Pakistan falling under TTP influence would present a catastrophic scenario for South Asia and global stability. Conversely, an independent and secular Balochistan could potentially stabilize the region and serve as a strategic partner for India.
Strategic Options
There is a possibility that Qatar, China, and Turkey could again intervene to broker a ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, urging Pakistan to avoid further attacks on Afghanistan and instead address its internal conflicts with the TTP and BLA. However, attacks by both the TTP and the BLA are likely to continue with similar intensity, and Pakistan may continue to incur significant losses. This could ultimately demonstrate the failure of Pakistan’s military objectives in Afghanistan.
In the context of the current Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict, where Pakistan is widely perceived as the aggressor, India may consider recognizing the Afghan Taliban government—similar to Russia’s diplomatic engagement—and expanding strategic engagement with Afghanistan. India may also need to prepare contingency plans regarding the future of PoK in the event of major destabilization in Pakistan.
Diplomatic engagement with China could emphasize that if the TTP were to gain control over PoK and Pakistan, it would also pose a significant security risk to China due to geographical proximity. Therefore, the liberation of PoK and the protection of moderate Shia Muslim communities there could align with the strategic interests of both China and India. Additionally, engagement with secular Baloch nationalist groups, particularly the leadership of the BLA, could become an important component of India’s long-term regional strategy.
Encouraging regional cooperation with Afghanistan could also reshape the geopolitical balance. Such developments would weaken the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through PoK, strengthen India’s sovereignty claims, and potentially provide India with greater strategic access to Central Asia. India has historically raised the Baloch issue at international forums, but the evolving regional situation may require a shift from symbolic diplomacy to more concrete strategic planning.
Conclusion
The ongoing Afghanistan–Pakistan conflict, the rise of the TTP, and the resilience of the Baloch movement highlight Pakistan’s deepening internal and external crises and underscore the strategic challenges facing the region. A destabilized Pakistan dominated by extremist forces would threaten South Asian stability and pose serious risks to India and china’s security. Conversely, an independent and secular Balochistan could emerge as a stabilizing regional partner.
India may therefore need to prepare for multiple contingencies, including potential changes in Pakistan’s territorial and political structure. Coordinating with Afghanistan, addressing the issue of PoK, and engaging with secular Baloch nationalist forces could form part of a broader regional strategy aimed at long-term stability.
About the Authors
Fatima Baloch is a senior geopolitical and regional affairs analyst who writes extensively on Afghanistan, Balochistan, and India, focusing on regional security dynamics, insurgency movements, and South Asian strategic affairs.
(Disclaimer: The views, observations and opinions expressed in above write up of Scoop News are strictly author's own. Scoop News does not take any onus or liability for the veracity, accuracy, validity, completeness, suitability of any of information in the above given write up. The information, facts or figures appearing in the write up in no way manifest the position, standpoint or stance of Scoop News and the Scoop News does not assume any encumbrance or answerability of the same. All disputes are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of competent Courts and Forums in Jammu City Only)
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