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| Pandits, Jammuites and the BJP | | 
By Amit Kushari IAS (Retd.)
Pandits had always been traditionally Congress supporters in the past. In the seventies and eighties political fight in J&K was between the Congress and National Conference mainly. PDP was not born then and BJP was politically confined to two or three constituencies of Jammu city. Since J&K is a state which is overwhelmingly Muslim majority (68% Muslims) and BJP was then considered to be a small Hindu minded communal party, not acceptable to the people at large, the choice before the people was only NC and Congress. Since NC was essentially a Muslim oriented party( a new incarnation of Muslim Conference), which talked of autonomy and pre 1953 position for J&K, this party was very popular among Kashmiri Muslims. The Hindus of Jammu mainly voted for the Congress and the Muslims of Jammu province voted for both NC and Congress. Congress had a fair amount of support among the Kashmiri Muslims also, especially in the hilly outskirts of the valley. A number of top Congress leaders like Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, Saifuddin Soz, Taj Moiuddin were from the Kashmir valley. A number of Gujjar leaders were from the Congress.
The scenario started changing after the death of Shrimati Indira Gandhi. The Pandits had a very soft corner in their hearts for Nehru because he was a Pandit by birth and Indiraji was in their eyes a Kashmiri “batain” (pandit lady )and they were extremely proud of her. Their confidence in the Nehru family was shattered when in 1990-92 India was unable to protect their interests and they had to flee Kashmir in the wake of unprecedented persecution by the Kashmiri Muslims as a part of a bigger game plan of Pakistan to fully Islamise Kashmir by purging it of all Hindu minorities. Overnight the Pundits became as helpless as orphans. They had always considered the government of India as their protector’ “Mai Baap” and when the Govt of India couldn’t protect them they started looking for other political alternatives. In the early 1990s BJP took an upward swing with the Rath yatra and Babri masjid demolition. The Pandits found an alternative to the Congress and there was a mass migration from Congress to BJP. Now there is hardly any Pandit who supports the Congress.
For the Hindus of Jammu the situation is quite different. In the elections of 2014 a number of Jammuite Hindus were carried away by the Modi wave, like other north Indian Hindus but the switchover from Congress to BJP was not 100%. Roughly 60% of them shifted to BJPbut 40% still remained with Congress. In fact the Hindus of extreme northern India, like Himachalis, Garwalis and Dogras/Ladakhis have a natural tendency to be with Congress. I don’t know the reason why. Their inclination towards the BJP is more peripheral, skin deep. It is not so deep as the bond of other North Indians or Central Indians or Western Indians. In other words, BJP may lose support in Jammu quite easily. Jammuites have traditionally voted for parties which are likely to come to power in the state so that their MLAs can give them better roads irrigation facilities and employment in Government. Initially they were reluctant to vote for BJP for exactly this reason. It is for this reason that BJP was desperate to come to power even if it meant holding the hands of an enemy with an ideology opposed to their own. They had simply no other choice. If at least some of the BJP MLAs could not become Ministers, BJP would not get votes in future in Jammu. Jammuites would think that BJP can never get them any benefits even if they sent 25 MLAs to the Assembly. So to remain in power the BJP MLAs of Jammu have to always remain close to their voters, trying to give them whatever they can give. People of Jammu have shown in the past that could even vote for Kashmiri parties like NC or PDP, not to speak of Congress. They have, in the past, sent NC MLAs from Hindu majority areas like Samba, Marh, Bishna, Nagrota. So they can never be taken for granted by the BJP. The Pandits on the other hand are blind supporters of BJP and especially Modi. Congress had never talked about their rehabilitation in the valley. Modi has done that. Although the Pandits know very well in their hearts that it is practically not possible for them to go back to Kashmir, when Modi talks about their “ghar vapasi” it gladdens their hearts and they feel obliged to support him blindly. Even if Modi puts them to extreme inconvenience and makes them stand in huge queues at banks and ATMs, even if PM Modi puts restrictions on sale of properties after March 2017, as is rumoured in the popular social media, they will continue chanting “Ghar ghar Modi, Har har Modi”— in the same pattern as Kashmiri Muslims in the past adored Sheikh Abdullah.
The fascination of upper caste Hindus, living in Northern and Western India ,with BJP, may not , however be too deep. They may tolerate some pain for so called imaginary future gain for maximum 2 or 3 weeks. If there is no relief in one months time, even the ‘sukh bhogi’ upper caste Hindus of the Hindi cow belt may start leaving the BJP fold one by one.
The scheduled castes have already left BJP after the cow slaughter harassments. The Muslims and Christians are likely to vote for those candidates who have the highest chance of defeating BJP. In 2014 BJP was swept to power with only 31% of total votes. If due to disputed and misguided moves like cow slaughter ban and demonetisation, they slip downwards by even 3 or 4 % they will not be able to get even 150 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. PM Modi may not be much bothered about this prospect because he is an unmarried sanyasi (technically, at least) and is free of all mundane greeds, but the millions of BJP supporters and workers will be terribly disappointed. Before it is too late they should properly advise the PM. After emergency, if the Congress supporters had properly advised Indiraji instead of clapping and singing meaningless praises of sychophancy, Mrs Gandhi would not have to face the terrible defeat of 1977.
(The author is former Financial Commissioner, J&K Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or [email protected])
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