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| Political Stalemate in J&K | | 
By Amit Kushari IAS( Retd)
Almost a month has passed after the death of Chief Minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, but so far no political Government could be formed in J&K because of the inherent absurdities of a PDP- BJP government which Mufti Sahab could cleverly brush under the carpet with his vast experience and statesman like qualities. A government which is popular in Kashmir province cannot be popular in Jammu province and a government which is popular in Jammu is not likely to be popular in Kashmir. Kashmir and Jammu are two diverse territories having almost nothing in common. The Maharaja could rule this diverse territory because there was no democracy before 1947. From 1947 to 2014 the absurdity of the artificial marriage of Kashmir with Jammu could not be felt because throughout India as well as in J&K, Congress was a dominant party. The ideology of Congress was based on compromises and that party could carry forward diverse people of dissimilar cultures under one political umbrella. But in 2014 the scenario changed in the whole of India. BJP’s ideology of Hindu cultural nationalism found great resonance throughout northern and western India and the party captured power in Delhi and in at least a dozen states. This phenomenon had a profound impact on the Hindus of Jammu also and they became more conscious of their Jammu and Hindu identity. They were innocent hill people— not very politically aware. They had always looked upon Nehru and Indira as the protector of Hindus and ‘Bharat Mata’ and they always voted for the Congress. Out of the 37 assembly seats which Jammu had at least 20 would be bagged by the Congress party. The Kashmir based political parties did not have much difficulty in aligning themselves with the Congress because, though an Indian party, Congress was known to be secular minded and hence was more acceptable to the Kashmiri Muslims.
The last assembly elections threw up an entirely different scenario in 2014. Congress was vastly reduced in strength and secured only 12 seats. The two rival Kashmir parties, NC and PDP got only 15 and 28 seats and BJP secured 25 out of the 37 Jammu seats. In this scenario government formation becomes very difficult if BJP has to be kept out of power. One of the two Kashmiri parties have to tie up with the BJP if J&K has to get a political government. This may be very unpopular and unacceptable for the Kashmiri Muslims but this is a bitter pill they will have to swallow to get a democratic government. Otherwise they will have to make do with Governor’s rule which means giving an upper hand to the Central government. Traditionally the people of Jammu have welcomed Governor’s rule because for them any democratic government amounted to a Kashmiri dominated government and subservience of Jammu. In December 2014, for the first time in history, the people of Jammu could pay back Kashmir in their own coin. Kashmiris have always opposed the idea of division of Jammu and Kashmir into two separate states because that would end their hegemony and upper hand in the whole of J&K and their employment opportunities would be confined only to Kashmir province. They gloated over the fact that the Centre cannot divide the state of Jammu & Kashmir unless Article 370 is abolished, which again cannot be done by the Centre against the wishes of the Kashmiris. It seemed that the people of Jammu would have to remain subservient for eternity unless the Centre decided to clamp President’s rule for an indefinite period.
Today’s J&K is very similar to Pakistan before 1971. West Pakistan thought that they could subjugate East Pakistan indefinitely….but unfortunately for them, in 1971, the people of East Pakistan displayed exemplary unity and voted together for Awami League of Sheikh Mujeeb. Awami League got a huge number of seats in the Pakistani parliament. Awami League could single handed form the government of Pakistan without any outside support and they could also shift the capital from Islamabad to Dacca. West Pakistan had only two options before them….either accept East Pakistan’s hegemony or let East Pakistan go its own way. Ultimately through the war of 1971 East Pakistan became an independent nation. However, there is a major dissimilarity also in the two situations—whereas East Pakistan had 55 % seats in the Pakistani parliament, Jammu has only 40% seats in the J&K assembly and if only the Hindu areas of Jammu are taken into account, which can really pose a challenge to the Kashmiri domination, the number is even less than 40%—-it is around 33% only. So it appears that Jammu will have to struggle a long battle before they can get their own state and Chief Minister.
The PDP’s hesitation to continue with the alliance is quite understandable. It is losing its popularity in Kashmir rapidly. Association with BJP is never acceptable to any Muslim voter– whether in Kashmir or in other parts of India. Mufti Sayeed somehow carried the alliance forward deftly and with tolerance because he knew that compromise is essential to be CM in a weirdly diverse state like Jammu and Kashmir. If his daughter, Mehbooba continues it she will remain CM for 4 years but what will be her future after that if Kashmiri Muslims do not forgive her because of her association with BJP? She is only 45 and still has long innings to play. She has to plan for her future and hence her indecision. If BJP approaches National Conference for an alternative alliance, (this alliance is a workable proposition with a little bit of “jor-tor”) BJP will get a similar response from young Omar Abdullah who has long innings to play. However, if Dr. Farooq Abdullah is projected as the CM of the new alliance, things may work out for the BJP. In that scenario BJP has to manage the support of at least 4 independent MLAs or a break away faction of the Congress.
Time will only tell how things work out for J&K. If both Mehbooba Mufti and Farooq Abdullah do not agree to be CM with BJP support then the state could be in for President’s rule for a long period, may be for two years or more!
(Amit Kushari is former Financial Commissioner, J&K. Feedback at [email protected] or contact at 09748635185)
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